Scenarios of Fragility in Northern Ninewa: Baseline Assessment for the Subdistricts of Wana, Zummar, Rabbia, Sinuni


With this qualitative baseline assessment, Social Inquiry developed four subdistrict profiles within some of the most ethno-religiously and tribally diverse areas in Ninewa Governorate that bore the brunt of violence and displacement during the ISIS conflict. These profiles focus on unpacking past and current demographies and grievances as well as identifying the various factors influencing intra- and inter-group relations at the community level and evaluating which actors and institutions are influential in each subdistrict. This served as the basis for recommendations for programming to mitigate violence or tension based on an analysis of potential future “scenarios of fragility.”

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